With the penetration rate of the LED market exceeding 50% and the growth rate of market size dropping to about 20%+, the transformation of LED lighting has already gone through the first stage of replacement. The competition in the existing market will further intensify, and the market competition for LED light source/circulation products will tend to become intense and accompanied by a decline in scale (the development of emerging markets may delay this decline, but will not change the entire trend). Today is cruel, and tomorrow will be even more cruel. However, if we still do the work of replacing/circulation products, the day after tomorrow will not be very good.

Entering the second stage of LED changing lighting, what kind of things will happen and what kind of changes will occur? This is what we need to think about and face, and the reason why we can have a better future. If we hope to rely on the sufficient and brutal competition in the stock market to eliminate a large number of small and medium-sized competitors and survive in order to “dominate” the market, then we should still wash our hands and go ashore. Lighting products are different from black/white appliances, especially in the LED era. The technology/production/market threshold is too low, there is no patent fence and market barriers on the application end, and the average order value and repurchase rate are too low. Traditional brands have not formed or formed the religious “stickiness” similar to Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi. Brand market share has always been boiling water, and it is useless to raise it. This is also the reason why this thing can support so many people. It is similar to contracting a piece of farmland to grow crops. As long as you are willing to work hard and sweat, you can always do it. It’s just that if someone has a little more land, they can put it in the entire agricultural land to see, which can only be called a wealthy family, not really a leading hegemon.

LED lighting is now a red ocean or a sea of blood. Overall, the changes that LED itself has made to lighting have already been achieved in the big picture. In the future, more attention will be paid to details and forms, and the previous changes will be improved and strengthened. The trend of the entire transformation will slow down, and technology and products will be fine tuned. These are all manifestations of the transformation from incremental market competition to stock market competition. Will the changes in the second stage unfold gently in this way, and will there be variables? We don’t know, this can be considered conjecture 1.

Conjecture 2: With the consumption capacity of the Chinese people and people around the world today, and the average unit price of lighting products, if we can create an incremental curve in the stock market, it must be a very impressive operation, and it will definitely achieve extraordinary companies and brands. What does it mean for the stock market to create an incremental curve? For example, the ceiling light that you use in your bedroom is a good new one that can last for ten years. However, when you see a new ceiling light on the market, you really want to buy it, and then you buy it to replace the ceiling light at home. If you can help users achieve this, both advantages and disadvantages will disappear, and it is not impossible to instantly turn off the Eup. Why do users do this? This is the question you need to ponder. Let’s make a hypothesis here. If there is a practical and effective quick sleep aid function added to this ceiling light, there is indeed a chance.

The third conjecture is that the LED lighting market will once again take the path of subsidies, pilot projects, and scaling up through the rise of intelligence and connectivity. However, this time it is mainly about holding onto the thigh, rather than happening in LED and lighting itself, such as smart/smart street lights, smart towns, smart cities, and so on. In fact, many applications of intelligent technologies that are happening at present have nothing to do with lighting. It is lighting that needs to be pushed upwards, and it is also intelligent technology that wants to pull lighting as a foothold. That’s all. However, lighting does have the potential to apply these intelligent technologies, so it is an opportunity, but it does not constitute the so-called force of change. Essentially, it is a competition in the stock market, and LED’s transformation of lighting still occurs in its own dimension. Moreover, this thing is not universal. You know, what needs to be moved has already been moved, and what hasn’t been moved is fine. It’s not your dish.